Iran Space Launch

[TheOldDog]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...C5D9951E9E.htm

A few days before Iran made this public a Reuters news article carried a small mention that the US was evaluating intelligence passed on to them by Israel to the effect that Iran was developing rocket technology capable of sending a ballistic nuclear warhead to Europe (of course to balance it out Israel already possess its own technology to do this and its probably a great deal superior and more accurate). In a nutshell the cat was coming out of the bag anyway so Iran opened the bag up publicly. While aljazeera (of course) mentions only peaceful use of this technology for Internet and telephony it translates out to the ability to lob a nuclear warhead around as well, if you have one to toss into the equation.

Combined with recent reports that the US is supposedly evaluating a bombing plan on Iraq and that Israel has requested a safe corridor through US controlled Iraqi airspace things seem to have moved past ‘simmer’ towards ‘boil’.

The way I look at it only a few possibilities exist and one of them should come to fruition in the next few months.

Iran stops its nuke work (I dont think this will happen)
Israel attacks Iran with open support from the US.
Israel attacks Iran with behind the scenes support from the US.
Israel attacks Iran with no support from the US, around the long way on a one way trip for its planes.
The US attacks Iran and leaves Israel out of the picture.

Any other takes on the near future?

[Demio]

US and Israel chicken out and invite Iran for a barbecue?

[Alex L.]

Well, as for Iran....

I think the international cummunity is going about it the wrong way with their current militaristic approach.

Iran is far more devided politically than we see it to be. Ahmadinejad is an extremist even in his own country. The religious leaders in Iran are actually more moderate than Ahmadinejad. Also, Iranian youth culture is more moderate than we believe.

Do note that since iraq, 'democracy' is affiliated with civil war by the countries in the region. So 'bringing democracy' in the same way as the coalition has enfored in Iraq is resisted highly by all layers of Iranian culture. The very notion of such intervention brings all Iranians together to support Ahmadinejad and his extremist stance on things. Because as far as safety for your children goes... Iranians would rather have the police state they have now than civil war, like in Iraq.

I believe that the US government and the CIA could better invest in aiding/supporting those groups of moderates that strive for democracy in their own way, rather than flashing their guns and using the cowboy way.

I can't blaim Iran for wanting the Bomb. Its the best bargaining chip you could have. Look at North Korea; their strategy worked! Working at a nuclear program supported their position at the negotiation table, and that is what Iran wants. I doubt currentday Iran is interrested in actually using the bomb in Israel, or its neighbours. I think its more of a deterrent against foreign economical intervention. Lets be honest. Its no secret that the control of natural resources in that area is a high priority for foreign governments.

And as for imminent war with Israel... I don't realy believe it. If Israel attacks any arabic nation, the entire arabic world will respond and they would loose public opinion on the Palestinian issue as well. Even if Iran continues to develop into this technology, it is still 10 years away of having a working A-bomb.

I think things will be status quo all arround, until the US decides (like they decided with Iraq) that they want to bring 'democracy' to Iran and start their own military campaign. But since the US can't really afford it and the White House will be occupied by a democrat, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[dunkellic]

what alex (partly) said + iran is not the bad guy and we are not the good guys

[Alex L.]

Nikov didn't say anything in this thread, lol.

[Michael_Denmark]

[R-DEV]Alex L., I agree.

Mike

[SiN|ScarFace]

I agree with Alex L. but I still think there will be bombs dropped on Iran eventually which would be a bad thing.

[Michael_Denmark]

There probably will.

[[R-CON]MrD]

When you are saying that Iran needs 10 years to get the bomb, that isn't quite correct. With the right materials an A level student could build one. I think you mean a viable strategic ballistic missile deployment system. At the moment theres not much to stop someone flying a chopper in low and detonating it but the airforce, theres nothing to stop a lorry driving one in but roadblocks. And then theres all the russian suitcase bombs that went missing..................

[SiN|ScarFace]

Originally Posted by [R-PUB]MrD

When you are saying that Iran needs 10 years to get the bomb, that isn't quite correct. With the right materials an A level student could build one.

You might want to expound that thought a little more, it's not that simple or every country on the planet would have nukes.